March Madness 2025 First Round Projections

Introduction and methodology

Following up on my Kaggle March Mania top 40 finish from last year (in addition to my top 30 finish from 2021 ), I’m excited to share my Mach Madness projections for this year! I want to get a bit more granular this year and be able to share some individual game projections as well, as an exercise in preparing these kinds of visuals (not to mention the social media clout).

My methodology for my projections is similar as previous seasons: I calculate a variety of team strength metrics for each team to get a consensus estimate for how well a team has played over the course of a season, adjusting for opponent quality faced and things like home court advantage. I then apply an adjustment for any significant player injuries to account for teams that played well but may have dealt with a late-season injury to an impactful player (like Virginia Tech WBB with Elizabeth Kitley last year, or Duke MBB this year with Cooper Flagg). After that, I simulate the tournament 10,000 times to determine the odds of different outcomes for tournaments.

Uniquely this year, the code driving these projections was done entirely in Julia this year–I look forward to sharing my code after the Kaggle March Mania competition begins in earnest.

Okay, enough flim-flam jibber jabber, let’s get to the projections.

Mens Tournament Odds

These odds reflect each team’s odds of winning a given round in the tournament–for example, Auburn has a 61% chance of winning in the Sweet 16 by my projections.

Men's March Madness Predictions
Probability of winning a given tournament round
Team Play-in Games First Round Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Championship
Auburn
98.6% 79.0% 61.0% 44.9% 29.1% 16.9%
Duke
98.0% 78.6% 58.0% 41.5% 25.3% 15.5%
Houston
98.0% 70.3% 54.6% 38.0% 24.1% 15.0%
Florida
96.9% 76.1% 52.9% 36.2% 21.5% 11.8%
Tennessee
94.1% 70.0% 48.5% 23.9% 12.8% 6.8%
Alabama
93.6% 64.3% 41.2% 19.2% 9.1% 4.6%
Maryland
87.2% 66.1% 30.1% 17.0% 8.1% 3.4%
Texas Tech
89.5% 59.4% 33.8% 15.0% 7.0% 2.8%
Michigan St.
93.5% 60.2% 33.9% 14.5% 6.8% 2.7%
Iowa St.
86.5% 55.6% 31.8% 13.1% 6.3% 2.4%
Arizona
90.2% 63.0% 23.8% 12.7% 5.4% 2.2%
St. John’s
92.1% 51.5% 27.2% 11.3% 4.8% 1.9%
Gonzaga
65.6% 22.1% 13.3% 7.2% 3.4% 1.8%
Purdue
85.7% 49.6% 15.9% 7.8% 3.0% 1.2%
Wisconsin
90.8% 53.3% 24.8% 9.1% 3.2% 1.2%
Kansas
64.5% 34.1% 17.9% 7.7% 3.0% 1.1%
Illinois
68.0% 40.9% 17.6% 6.7% 2.5% 1.1%
Texas A&M
80.9% 47.0% 15.6% 7.5% 2.8% 0.9%
Clemson
75.6% 40.3% 11.7% 5.0% 1.9% 0.7%
BYU
60.4% 29.8% 12.5% 4.2% 1.4% 0.6%
Saint Mary’s
61.9% 24.1% 11.8% 3.9% 1.4% 0.6%
Kentucky
81.8% 41.8% 16.2% 4.9% 1.8% 0.5%
Marquette
61.5% 27.1% 12.5% 4.1% 1.6% 0.5%
Missouri
69.5% 30.1% 13.5% 4.7% 1.7% 0.5%
UCLA
62.8% 20.4% 10.0% 3.2% 1.1% 0.4%
Michigan
60.4% 31.6% 9.5% 4.4% 1.5% 0.4%
Mississippi
56.6% 24.8% 10.9% 3.5% 1.1% 0.4%
Connecticut
58.9% 15.6% 6.8% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Louisville
59.1% 13.7% 7.0% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3%
Oregon
70.1% 27.9% 7.7% 3.2% 1.1% 0.3%
Baylor
54.1% 12.2% 5.5% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
North Carolina 56.2% 25.5% 10.2% 4.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Mississippi St.
45.9% 9.1% 3.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Georgia
34.4% 7.4% 3.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Arkansas
35.5% 13.5% 4.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
Colorado St.
52.0% 15.8% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Creighton
40.9% 7.3% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
VCU
39.6% 15.9% 5.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Memphis
48.0% 14.1% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
New Mexico
38.5% 12.1% 3.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
UC San Diego
39.6% 14.6% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Vanderbilt
38.1% 10.7% 4.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
Oklahoma
41.1% 8.0% 2.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0%
Xavier 52.1% 17.0% 7.4% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Utah St.
37.2% 8.7% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Drake
30.5% 8.7% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Texas 47.9% 15.0% 6.5% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Liberty
29.9% 7.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego St. 43.8% 17.9% 6.2% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
McNeese St.
24.3% 7.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Yale
19.1% 6.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon
12.8% 3.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
High Point
14.3% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy
18.2% 3.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb
13.5% 3.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington
10.5% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Akron
9.8% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford
5.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris
6.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha
7.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bryant
6.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana
9.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Norfolk St.
3.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville
2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary’s 46.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 53.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 57.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Francis PA 43.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Women’s Tournament Odds

Women's March Madness Predictions
Probability of winning a given tournament round
Team Play-in Games First Round Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Championship
South Carolina
99.9% 95.4% 89.2% 76.9% 54.9% 38.8%
Connecticut
99.7% 94.7% 79.0% 55.9% 40.7% 20.7%
Texas
100.0% 94.1% 78.2% 54.2% 24.8% 13.9%
UCLA
99.8% 92.0% 72.8% 55.8% 26.2% 9.7%
USC
99.6% 91.3% 72.3% 31.8% 19.0% 7.4%
Notre Dame
99.0% 83.0% 62.0% 29.1% 10.4% 4.6%
Duke
99.2% 77.3% 53.0% 13.0% 4.7% 1.6%
LSU
97.6% 68.7% 42.2% 15.9% 4.5% 0.9%
TCU
99.5% 80.4% 28.6% 8.2% 1.7% 0.5%
Oklahoma
95.3% 66.8% 15.3% 5.8% 2.2% 0.4%
Mississippi
93.8% 56.9% 16.0% 8.3% 1.8% 0.3%
Tennessee
94.1% 54.2% 11.9% 4.4% 1.0% 0.3%
North Carolina St.
97.8% 62.4% 30.2% 9.3% 1.8% 0.2%
West Virginia
85.0% 54.5% 23.8% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2%
Kansas St.
93.8% 58.1% 16.2% 3.3% 1.1% 0.1%
Baylor
92.3% 41.9% 9.3% 4.0% 0.7% 0.1%
Michigan St.
81.0% 34.8% 14.2% 3.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Kentucky
93.2% 40.7% 9.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Florida St.
84.2% 29.4% 12.8% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1%
Ohio St.
94.3% 44.6% 8.4% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Alabama
95.0% 62.7% 6.3% 2.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Iowa
85.3% 30.7% 4.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
North Carolina
96.1% 41.4% 13.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Michigan
70.4% 13.7% 5.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Georgia Tech
65.9% 6.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Maryland
91.3% 36.3% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Mississippi St.
47.4% 4.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Vanderbilt
72.0% 19.3% 8.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Utah
58.5% 3.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Oklahoma St.
70.6% 4.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
California
52.6% 4.6% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska
46.7% 8.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana
41.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisville
53.3% 10.9% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois
46.9% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon
28.0% 3.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Creighton
53.1% 3.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Iowa St. 80.2% 27.4% 3.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington 60.3% 10.4% 3.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Harvard
19.1% 2.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason
15.8% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond
34.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota St.
29.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St.
14.7% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 39.7% 4.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St.
6.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield
6.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Liberty
6.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego St.
2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon
7.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay
5.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast
4.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida
5.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St.
5.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Norfolk St.
8.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St.
3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Vermont
2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin
1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Princeton 19.9% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh
0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro
0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St.
0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson
0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech
0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 60.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
High Point 66.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern 39.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 33.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Mens Play-in and Round 1 Game Projections

These are the odds for individual matchups for the Play-in and Round 1 games. For teams who are slated to play against a play-in team in the first round (for example, Duke could plausibly play either Mount St. Mary’s or American in their first round game), I have provided the probabilities for either possible matchup.

Men's March Madness Round One
Projections for Play-ins and Round 1 Games
East 1 Duke 98.1% 1.9% American 16
East 1 Duke 98.3% 1.7% Mount St. Mary’s 16
East 2 Alabama 93.5% 6.5% Robert Morris 15
East 3 Wisconsin 91.2% 8.8% Montana 14
East 4 Arizona 90.5% 9.5% Akron 13
East 5 Oregon 70.0% 30.0% Liberty 12
East 6 BYU 59.7% 40.3% VCU 11
East 7 Saint Mary’s 61.9% 38.1% Vanderbilt 10
East 8 Mississippi St. 45.9% 54.1% Baylor 9
East 16 American 53.7% 46.3% Mount St. Mary’s 16
Midwest 1 Houston 97.9% 2.1% SIU Edwardsville 16
Midwest 2 Tennessee 94.1% 5.9% Wofford 15
Midwest 3 Kentucky 82.1% 17.9% Troy 14
Midwest 4 Purdue 85.5% 14.5% High Point 13
Midwest 5 Clemson 75.2% 24.8% McNeese St. 12
Midwest 6 Illinois 67.8% 32.2% Texas 11
Midwest 6 Illinois 66.2% 33.8% Xavier 11
Midwest 7 UCLA 63.7% 36.3% Utah St. 10
Midwest 8 Gonzaga 66.2% 33.8% Georgia 9
Midwest 11 Texas 48.1% 51.9% Xavier 11
South 1 Auburn 98.5% 1.5% Alabama St. 16
South 1 Auburn 98.9% 1.1% St. Francis PA 16
South 2 Michigan St. 93.8% 6.2% Bryant 15
South 3 Iowa St. 86.7% 13.3% Lipscomb 14
South 4 Texas A&M 80.7% 19.3% Yale 13
South 5 Michigan 61.0% 39.0% UC San Diego 12
South 6 Mississippi 54.7% 45.3% North Carolina 11
South 6 Mississippi 60.6% 39.4% San Diego St. 11
South 7 Marquette 62.6% 37.4% New Mexico 10
South 8 Louisville 59.5% 40.5% Creighton 9
South 11 North Carolina 56.0% 44.0% San Diego St. 11
South 16 Alabama St. 57.2% 42.8% St. Francis PA 16
West 1 Florida 96.7% 3.3% Norfolk St. 16
West 2 St. John’s 91.6% 8.4% Nebraska Omaha 15
West 3 Texas Tech 90.4% 9.6% UNC Wilmington 14
West 4 Maryland 87.2% 12.8% Grand Canyon 13
West 5 Memphis 47.6% 52.4% Colorado St. 12
West 6 Missouri 70.2% 29.8% Drake 11
West 7 Kansas 64.8% 35.2% Arkansas 10
West 8 Connecticut 59.2% 40.8% Oklahoma 9

Womens Play-in and Round 1 Game Projections

Women's March Madness Round One
Projections for Play-ins and Round 1 Games
Birmingham 2 1 South Carolina 99.9% 0.1% Tennessee Tech 16
Birmingham 2 2 Duke 99.1% 0.9% Lehigh 15
Birmingham 2 3 North Carolina 96.0% 4.0% Oregon St. 14
Birmingham 2 4 Maryland 91.3% 8.7% Norfolk St. 13
Birmingham 2 5 Alabama 94.4% 5.6% Green Bay 12
Birmingham 2 6 West Virginia 88.0% 12.0% Columbia 11
Birmingham 2 6 West Virginia 82.9% 17.1% Washington 11
Birmingham 2 7 Vanderbilt 72.3% 27.7% Oregon 10
Birmingham 2 8 Utah 58.8% 41.2% Indiana 9
Birmingham 2 11 Columbia 39.4% 60.6% Washington 11
Birmingham 3 1 Texas 99.9% 0.1% High Point 16
Birmingham 3 1 Texas 100.0% 0.0% William & Mary 16
Birmingham 3 2 TCU 99.7% 0.3% Fairleigh Dickinson 15
Birmingham 3 3 Notre Dame 98.9% 1.1% Stephen F. Austin 14
Birmingham 3 4 Ohio St. 93.8% 6.2% Montana St. 13
Birmingham 3 5 Tennessee 94.0% 6.0% South Florida 12
Birmingham 3 6 Michigan 66.1% 33.9% Iowa St. 11
Birmingham 3 6 Michigan 88.9% 11.1% Princeton 11
Birmingham 3 7 Louisville 53.0% 47.0% Nebraska 10
Birmingham 3 8 Illinois 46.8% 53.2% Creighton 9
Birmingham 3 11 Iowa St. 80.3% 19.7% Princeton 11
Birmingham 3 16 High Point 66.0% 34.0% William & Mary 16
Spokane 1 1 UCLA 99.8% 0.2% Southern 16
Spokane 1 1 UCLA 99.8% 0.2% UC San Diego 16
Spokane 1 2 North Carolina St. 97.9% 2.1% Vermont 15
Spokane 1 3 LSU 97.6% 2.4% San Diego St. 14
Spokane 1 4 Baylor 92.3% 7.7% Grand Canyon 13
Spokane 1 5 Mississippi 94.0% 6.0% Ball St. 12
Spokane 1 6 Florida St. 83.9% 16.1% George Mason 11
Spokane 1 7 Michigan St. 81.8% 18.2% Harvard 10
Spokane 1 8 Richmond 34.7% 65.3% Georgia Tech 9
Spokane 1 16 Southern 40.1% 59.9% UC San Diego 16
Spokane 4 1 USC 99.6% 0.4% UNC Greensboro 16
Spokane 4 2 Connecticut 99.8% 0.2% Arkansas St. 15
Spokane 4 3 Oklahoma 95.2% 4.8% Florida Gulf Coast 14
Spokane 4 4 Kentucky 93.3% 6.7% Liberty 13
Spokane 4 5 Kansas St. 93.6% 6.4% Fairfield 12
Spokane 4 6 Iowa 85.3% 14.7% Murray St. 11
Spokane 4 7 Oklahoma St. 71.8% 28.2% South Dakota St. 10
Spokane 4 8 California 52.1% 47.9% Mississippi St. 9

Any logos included in this post are purely for editorial/informational use.

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