Introduction and methodology

Last year I released my initial batch of March Madness projections for 2025 ! I tend to be decently good at the Kaggle competition for March Madness at least, and other people found them useful as well . While I am releasing these a bit late for anyone to really bake them into a bracket (blame a hectic spring training), I did want to share my predictions for the upcoming tournaments.

I intended to release updated blog posts with game-by-game predictions and some nice formatting/commentary… unfortunately (okay, fortunately) I left on a trip to Hawai’i that week and was a bit busy R&R’ing instead of updating my blog. We’ll see if I can get some updates out during the tournament since I don’t have anything as fun on the calendar this week.

My methodology for my projections is similar as previous seasons: I calculate a variety of team strength metrics for each team to get a consensus estimate for how well a team has played over the course of a season, adjusting for opponent quality faced and things like home court advantage. I then apply an adjustment for any significant player injuries to account for teams that played well but may have dealt with a late-season injury to an impactful player (like Virginia Tech WBB with Elizabeth Kitley last year, or Duke MBB this year with Cooper Flagg). After that, I simulate the tournament 10,000 times to determine the odds of different outcomes for tournaments.

Mens Tournament Odds

These odds reflect each team’s odds of winning a given round in the tournament–for example, Duke has a 31% chance of winning in the Final Four by my projections.

Men's March Madness Predictions Probability of reaching a given tournament round
Team	First Round	Round of 32	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final 4	Championship
Michigan	98.1%	83.1%	66.9%	47.9%	31.2%	19.5%
Duke	98.0%	81.6%	63.5%	47.6%	30.7%	18.4%
Arizona	97.8%	80.4%	62.8%	41.7%	23.5%	13.3%
Houston	95.6%	76.1%	49.7%	30.4%	17.0%	9.0%
Florida	98.8%	73.9%	50.0%	27.9%	15.1%	7.6%
Iowa St.	96.8%	71.4%	46.9%	22.2%	11.6%	5.7%
Purdue	96.1%	71.8%	40.4%	19.6%	8.9%	3.9%
Gonzaga	94.9%	67.7%	39.0%	19.2%	8.7%	3.9%
Illinois	95.1%	70.7%	34.4%	18.2%	8.7%	3.8%
Connecticut	94.0%	66.3%	35.6%	13.8%	5.9%	2.2%
Michigan St.	90.1%	54.3%	31.0%	12.0%	5.1%	2.0%
Vanderbilt	82.2%	46.9%	19.8%	8.1%	3.2%	1.1%
St. John’s	77.3%	46.5%	15.3%	7.8%	3.1%	1.1%
Tennessee	86.7%	48.2%	21.1%	7.4%	2.9%	1.0%
Virginia	90.7%	48.2%	20.0%	6.8%	2.5%	0.9%
Louisville	74.4%	37.2%	19.8%	6.8%	2.6%	0.9%
Nebraska	91.5%	47.8%	18.6%	7.0%	2.6%	0.9%
Arkansas	84.4%	52.6%	17.2%	7.0%	2.3%	0.7%
Kansas	86.1%	43.7%	12.4%	5.7%	1.9%	0.6%
Alabama	83.9%	45.9%	12.5%	4.9%	1.7%	0.5%
Texas Tech	79.3%	44.9%	12.4%	5.2%	1.9%	0.6%
Wisconsin	75.6%	37.2%	10.2%	3.6%	1.0%	0.2%
BYU	60.8%	21.3%	8.6%	2.8%	0.8%	0.2%
UCLA	63.2%	23.3%	8.7%	2.2%	0.6%	0.2%
Kentucky	61.9%	19.6%	8.6%	2.5%	0.9%	0.3%
North Carolina	66.3%	21.7%	6.5%	2.1%	0.6%	0.2%
Miami FL	62.2%	19.3%	6.6%	2.0%	0.5%	0.1%
Iowa	54.5%	15.0%	6.7%	2.2%	0.7%	0.2%
Ohio St.	59.3%	12.0%	5.4%	2.3%	0.7%	0.2%
Saint Mary’s	56.2%	13.9%	4.9%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%
Clemson	45.5%	11.1%	4.3%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Utah St.	49.9%	9.6%	4.4%	1.4%	0.3%	0.1%
Villanova	50.1%	9.8%	4.3%	1.4%	0.3%	0.1%
Georgia	53.1%	9.3%	4.2%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%
Texas	39.2%	10.2%	3.1%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
Texas A&M	43.8%	9.3%	3.0%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
Santa Clara	38.1%	8.7%	3.0%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
Saint Louis	46.9%	7.4%	3.2%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%
TCU	40.7%	6.2%	2.3%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%
UCF	36.8%	9.6%	2.5%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
Missouri	37.8%	8.5%	2.2%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
South Florida	25.6%	7.0%	2.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
Northern Iowa	22.7%	7.6%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
VCU	33.7%	7.0%	1.3%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
High Point	24.4%	6.2%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
Akron	20.7%	5.8%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
McNeese St.	17.8%	4.4%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
Hawaii	15.6%	3.9%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Hofstra	16.1%	3.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Cal Baptist	13.9%	2.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Miami OH	13.3%	2.5%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
North Dakota St.	9.9%	1.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Wright St.	9.3%	1.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Troy	8.5%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Furman	6.0%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Kennesaw St.	5.1%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Penn	4.9%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Idaho	4.4%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Queens	3.9%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Tennessee St.	3.2%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Howard	1.9%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
LIU Brooklyn	2.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Siena	2.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Prairie View A&M	1.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Women’s Tournament Odds

Women's March Madness Predictions Probability of reaching a given tournament round
Team	Play-in Games	First Round	Round of 32	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final 4	Championship
Connecticut		99.8%	98.0%	92.6%	85.8%	58.3%	36.4%
UCLA		99.9%	97.3%	91.5%	63.1%	41.7%	21.2%
South Carolina		100.0%	95.1%	84.7%	76.7%	35.9%	18.8%
Texas		99.8%	96.0%	86.8%	70.7%	34.1%	14.9%
LSU		99.8%	95.7%	79.2%	32.4%	17.5%	6.8%
Michigan		99.7%	83.9%	60.6%	18.5%	4.4%	0.9%
Iowa		99.3%	83.5%	49.9%	8.5%	1.2%	0.2%
TCU		98.3%	73.2%	37.9%	5.8%	0.8%	0.1%
Oklahoma		97.8%	61.2%	9.4%	5.5%	0.8%	0.1%
Vanderbilt		99.3%	79.5%	43.8%	5.3%	1.1%	0.2%
Ohio St.		99.3%	69.1%	38.8%	4.5%	0.9%	0.1%
Louisville		98.2%	79.4%	30.6%	5.5%	0.7%	0.1%
Duke		98.9%	80.5%	18.4%	2.9%	0.7%	0.1%
West Virginia		96.8%	62.1%	8.5%	3.3%	0.4%	0.0%
Maryland		95.8%	53.9%	4.1%	2.0%	0.3%	0.0%
Michigan St.		94.9%	38.4%	4.2%	2.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Notre Dame		89.7%	30.2%	12.2%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%
Washington		75.4%	23.5%	7.8%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%
Minnesota		97.1%	66.2%	5.8%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Kentucky		84.3%	35.5%	3.5%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%
North Carolina		97.4%	45.7%	2.8%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%
USC		81.0%	4.7%	1.6%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
Illinois		64.3%	15.3%	4.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
Alabama		80.7%	19.0%	3.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
Georgia		65.2%	12.4%	3.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
North Carolina St.		49.8%	8.0%	2.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
Tennessee		50.2%	8.1%	2.8%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
Mississippi		86.7%	32.3%	1.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
Nebraska	100.0%	55.5%	11.6%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
Baylor		44.5%	7.8%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Colorado		35.7%	5.2%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Oregon		67.9%	3.2%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
Virginia	61.7%	23.9%	3.1%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Oklahoma St.		75.6%	2.4%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
South Dakota St.		24.6%	3.3%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Texas Tech		52.5%	2.4%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Villanova		47.5%	1.9%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
James Madison		15.7%	2.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Iowa St.		61.6%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
Syracuse		38.4%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Virginia Tech		32.1%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Rhode Island		19.3%	1.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Gonzaga		13.3%	1.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Arizona St.	38.3%	10.9%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Fairfield		10.3%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Princeton		24.4%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Clemson		19.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Colorado St.		5.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Murray St.		4.2%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Miami OH		3.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Green Bay		2.9%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Western Illinois		2.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Vermont		1.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
UC San Diego		1.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Idaho		2.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson		0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
College of Charleston		1.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
High Point		0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Howard		0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Missouri St.	100.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Southern	62.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Samford	37.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
UTSA		0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Jacksonville		0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Holy Cross		0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Cal Baptist		0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Men’s Round 1 Game Projections

I’m running a few games behind, but here are my projections for all round 1 matchups for the men’s tournament. Some of these games have already happened, but this is what my model would have predicted for these games (and these predictions are already reflected in the above table for the Round 1 column):

Men's March Madness Round One Projections for Round 1 Games
East	1	Duke	97.9%	2.1%	Siena	16
East	2	Connecticut	94.0%	6.0%	Furman	15
East	3	Michigan St.	89.9%	10.1%	North Dakota St.	14
East	4	Kansas	86.0%	14.0%	Cal Baptist	13
East	5	St. John’s	77.3%	22.7%	Northern Iowa	12
East	6	Louisville	74.5%	25.5%	South Florida	11
East	7	UCLA	63.1%	36.9%	UCF	10
East	8	Ohio St.	59.4%	40.6%	TCU	9
South	1	Florida	98.8%	1.2%	Prairie View A&M	16
South	2	Houston	95.6%	4.4%	Idaho	15
South	3	Illinois	95.1%	4.9%	Penn	14
South	4	Nebraska	91.6%	8.4%	Troy	13
South	5	Vanderbilt	82.3%	17.7%	McNeese St.	12
South	6	North Carolina	66.2%	33.8%	VCU	11
South	7	Saint Mary’s	56.0%	44.0%	Texas A&M	10
South	8	Clemson	45.3%	54.7%	Iowa	9
Midwest	1	Michigan	98.1%	1.9%	Howard	16
Midwest	2	Iowa St.	96.9%	3.1%	Tennessee St.	15
Midwest	3	Virginia	90.6%	9.4%	Wright St.	14
Midwest	4	Alabama	83.9%	16.1%	Hofstra	13
Midwest	5	Texas Tech	79.2%	20.8%	Akron	12
Midwest	6	Tennessee	86.6%	13.4%	Miami OH	11
Midwest	7	Kentucky	61.9%	38.1%	Santa Clara	10
Midwest	8	Georgia	53.2%	46.8%	Saint Louis	9
West	1	Arizona	97.8%	2.2%	LIU Brooklyn	16
West	2	Purdue	96.0%	4.0%	Queens	15
West	3	Gonzaga	94.8%	5.2%	Kennesaw St.	14
West	4	Arkansas	84.6%	15.4%	Hawaii	13
West	5	Wisconsin	75.7%	24.3%	High Point	12
West	6	BYU	56.3%	43.7%	North Carolina St.	11
West	6	BYU	60.9%	39.1%	Texas	11
West	7	Miami FL	62.1%	37.9%	Missouri	10
West	8	Villanova	50.2%	49.8%	Utah St.	9

Women’s Round 1 Game Projections

And here are my projections for Round 1 of the women’s tournament. There are still two yet-to-be-resolved play-in games; both potential matchups are included.

Women's March Madness Round One Projections for Round 1 Games
Fort Worth 1	1	Connecticut	99.8%	0.2%	UTSA	16
Fort Worth 1	2	Vanderbilt	99.3%	0.7%	High Point	15
Fort Worth 1	3	Ohio St.	99.3%	0.7%	Howard	14
Fort Worth 1	4	North Carolina	97.4%	2.6%	Western Illinois	13
Fort Worth 1	5	Maryland	95.9%	4.1%	Murray St.	12
Fort Worth 1	6	Notre Dame	89.8%	10.2%	Fairfield	11
Fort Worth 1	7	Illinois	64.5%	35.5%	Colorado	10
Fort Worth 1	8	Iowa St.	61.7%	38.3%	Syracuse	9
Sacramento 4	1	South Carolina	100.0%	0.0%	Samford	16
Sacramento 4	1	South Carolina	100.0%	0.0%	Southern	16
Sacramento 4	2	Iowa	99.4%	0.6%	Fairleigh Dickinson	15
Sacramento 4	3	TCU	98.3%	1.7%	UC San Diego	14
Sacramento 4	4	Oklahoma	97.9%	2.1%	Idaho	13
Sacramento 4	5	Michigan St.	94.9%	5.1%	Colorado St.	12
Sacramento 4	6	Washington	75.5%	24.5%	South Dakota St.	11
Sacramento 4	7	Georgia	71.9%	28.1%	Arizona St.	10
Sacramento 4	7	Georgia	61.1%	38.9%	Virginia	10
Sacramento 4	8	Clemson	19.1%	80.9%	USC	9
Fort Worth 3	1	Texas	99.8%	0.2%	Missouri St.	16
Fort Worth 3	2	Michigan	99.7%	0.3%	Holy Cross	15
Fort Worth 3	3	Louisville	98.2%	1.8%	Vermont	14
Fort Worth 3	4	West Virginia	96.7%	3.3%	Miami OH	13
Fort Worth 3	5	Kentucky	83.8%	16.2%	James Madison	12
Fort Worth 3	6	Alabama	80.9%	19.1%	Rhode Island	11
Fort Worth 3	7	North Carolina St.	49.8%	50.2%	Tennessee	10
Fort Worth 3	8	Oregon	67.8%	32.2%	Virginia Tech	9
Sacramento 2	1	UCLA	99.9%	0.1%	Cal Baptist	16
Sacramento 2	2	LSU	99.8%	0.2%	Jacksonville	15
Sacramento 2	3	Duke	98.9%	1.1%	College of Charleston	14
Sacramento 2	4	Minnesota	97.0%	3.0%	Green Bay	13
Sacramento 2	5	Mississippi	86.6%	13.4%	Gonzaga	12
Sacramento 2	6	Baylor	44.5%	55.5%	Nebraska	11
Sacramento 2	7	Texas Tech	52.5%	47.5%	Villanova	10
Sacramento 2	8	Oklahoma St.	75.5%	24.5%	Princeton	9

Any logos included in this post are purely for editorial/informational use.